Despite reports of a solid harvest season, a sombre mood is expected among strawberry and cherry growers at the National Fruit Show at the Kent Showground next month.

“Many fruit growers are wondering whether they can continue with intensive horticultural production,” said Colin Hall, director of BTF 50 Club, a group of 300 fruit growers across the UK, of which more than 100 are based in Kent.

Their concern is the impending rise of the minimum wage and the impact it will have on the amount they have to pay seasonal fruit pickers.

From October 1, anyone aged over 21 will be entitled to £6.70 an hour, although the real sting in the tail is due next April, when the government introduces the first stage of its flagship budget policy the National Living Wage.

It will put the pay floor at £7.20 an hour for anyone aged 25 or over, with Chancellor George Osborne saying his ambition is to increase the figure to more than £9 an hour by 2020.

“Labour is a massive cost for the horticultural sector,” said Mr Hall, a partner at land and property agent BTF Partnership, based in Ashford and Canterbury.

“Growers estimate the National Living Wage will eat into their overall costs by 5%.

“That is a significant increase when about 55% of turnover is channelled back into labour costs. Paying staff can run into the tens of thousands every week.

“Now they are having to find un-budgeted money to balance the books.”

Research by Resolution Foundation this month said 31% of agriculture, forestry and fishing businesses will be affected by the new minimum wage next year, with pay rising on average by 0.6%.

It said 21% of workers in the sector will benefit, the third highest proportion of all industries.

Mr Hall predicts a higher wage bill will not be the only downside for fruit-growing businesses.

“A lot of the seasonal work is undertaken by migrants and many of them see £7.20 as a good rate,” he said.

“The concern from a farmer’s point of view is they will still have to pay £7.20 an hour, even if the staff don’t pick very much.

“Efficiency will go down because the incentive to pick more will not be there if workers know they are guaranteed £7.20 an hour..." - Colin Hall, BTF Partnership

“Efficiency will go down because the incentive to pick more will not be there if workers know they are guaranteed £7.20 an hour.

“Then a lot of them will stop working because they will earn up to the £11,000 tax-free threshold very quickly. They will not want to pay tax so they will go home.”

The solution, according to Mr Hall, is allowing farmers to hire pickers at a lower rate for a probationary period.

“We need a period when an employer is only required to pay the national minimum wage, rather than the living wage, so while someone is being trained or getting up to scratch, they won’t be guaranteed £7.20 an hour.

“That way we can get around the seasonality issue. I don’t think it will be too much of a stretch.”

He said a trip to the Fruit Focus show at East Malling Research in July summed up the feeling among growers.

“Everyone in the soft fruit sector, whether they grow strawberries, raspberries, blackberries or blueberries, is saying it will be a different show next year.

“People will go out of business and give up intensive production systems.

“This doesn’t just have a knock on for seasonal workforce, but also permanent stuff, suppliers and the housewife who cannot get her hands on local produce.

“Many will invest in new technology, but you can only drive efficiency that way to a degree.

“Dairy farmers have been cutting costs for years and many of them are still making headlines because they are going out of business.”