The Conservatives are facing a virtual electoral wipe-out at the general election, according to new polling.

Statistics from Electoral Calculus (EC) predict the Tories would lose 13 out of 18 Kent constituencies - all to the Labour Party.

The polling prediction service crunches polling data and analyses trends and now suggests once safe seats such as Ashford and Sevenoaks are likely to go from blue to red.

It is set against a national picture of the Conservatives’ almost total obliteration from the map.

EC’s findings, released yesterday on the eve of polls to two Kent councils and the Kent Police and Commissioner, suggest the Labour Party would return to Westminster with 472 seats compared to the Tories with a new low of 85.

In 2019, Labour, under leader Jeremy Corbyn, slumped to 197 seats and the Tories swept into Downing Street with a landslide of 376 MPs.

The Conservatives won 16 of the 17 Kent seats in 2019, although boundary changes will have increased that number to 18 when Prime Minister Rishi Sunak goes to the country.

It will make for grim reading in the two council areas up for full elections today (Thursday) at Tunbridge Wells and Maidstone.

The Liberal Democrats are the largest party of the ruling coalition on Tunbridge Wells Borough Council and hope to seize an overall, workable majority. If they do, the parliamentary constituency will be elevated from a tier two to a tier one target with former soldier Mike Martin hoping to unseat Tory Greg Clark.

EC has Mr Clark narrowly holding on.

A local Conservative supporter remarked: “We’re not geared up for a good night. Some members are more optimistic than others but it’s probably going to be awful.”

In Maidstone, the Lib Dems are widely tipped to become the largest party in a coalition, possibly with the Green Party if the Tories lose control.

Should that happen, Lib Dem parliamentary candidate Dave Naghi is likely to see his tier three campaign raised a level as he tries to beat Tory MP Helen Grant, who has a 21,000-plus majority in the old Maidstone and the Weald constituency.

However, boundary changes have altered the geography and the newly-configured Maidstone and Malling seat has incorporated strong Lib Dem-supporting areas. However, EC suggests that Labour has a 63% chance of winning.

One member of the Faversham and Mid Kent Conservative Association confided: “We’re almost certainly going to lose control of Maidstone Borough Council and the Lib Dems are likely to be the main party and the Greens are likely to take seats from us.

“The message on the doorstep is that some Tories will be behind us but many are going elsewhere but too many will stay at home.”

EC founder Martin Baxter said the polls suggest a “massive sea change” is on the way in British politics.

The service’s predictions do not always take into account local factors such as house building, roads or a hospital closure. But bigger concerns such as crime and immigration are factors.

Mr Baxter said the range of the Tories’ predicted demise nationally is 30 - 211 seats.

He added: “The polls would indicate a massive sea change in British politics is on the way. There is no floor in how low you can go in British politics - you can keep dropping until you hit zero.

“That’s the way that the first past the post voting system works - so if the Tories really do slump to a low, you’d have the prospect of Sir Ed Davey, leader of the Lib Dems, being leader of the Opposition.”

The Lib Dems are on course to take 50 seats at Westminster, according to EC.

Observers say the situation could resemble the Canadian general election in 1993, when the ruling Progressive Conservatives crashed from nearly 160 seats to just two.

Mr Baxter described the Conservative Party as “mass spectrum repulsive” - in other words, they are pushing people away in all directions.

Prominent Conservative Kent MPs such as Damian Green (Ashford), who is a former Deputy Prime Minister; Sir Roger Gale (Herne Bay and Sandwich); Damian Collins (Folkestone & Hythe) and Laura Trott (Sevenoaks) are all out on the EC calculations. The percentage in brackets below indicates the likelihood of the party winning.

Electoral Calculus predictions for Kent (May 1, 2024)

Ashford - Damian Green (Con) - LAB GAIN (68%)

Canterbury - Rosie Duffield (Lab) - LAB HOLD (98%)

Chatham & Aylesford - Tracey Crouch (Con) - LAB GAIN (57%)

Dartford - Gareth Johnson (Con) - LAB GAIN (78%)

Dover & Deal - Natalie Elphicke (Con) - LAB GAIN (92%)

Faversham & Mid Kent - Helen Whately (Con) - CON HOLD (54%)

Folkestone & Hythe - Damian Collins (Con) - LAB GAIN (82%)

Gillingham & Rainham - Rehman Chishti (Con) - LAB GAIN (75%)

Gravesham - Adam Holloway (Con) - LAB GAIN (74%)

Herne Bay and Sandwich - Sir Roger Gale (Con) - LAB GAIN (51%)

Maidstone & Malling - Helen Grant (Con) - LAB GAIN (63%)

Rochester & Strood - Kelly Tolhurst (Con) - LAB GAIN (79%)

Sittingbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson (Con) - CON HOLD (58%)

Sevenoaks - Laura Trott (Con) - LAB GAIN (49%)

Thanet East - Crain Mackinlay (Con) - LAB GAIN (97%)

Tonbridge - Tom Tugendhat (Con) - CON HOLD (68%)

Tunbridge Wells - Greg Clark (Con) - CON HOLD (46%)

Weald of Kent - New Seat - CON GAIN (84%)

Polling stations are open today (Thursday) for the Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells elections as well as for the Kent Police and Crime Commissioner. Voters must bring photo ID to polling places.