Comment: What can we learn from 2009?

business editor Trevor Sturgess

Shoppers queued outside the Woolworths branch in Sittingbourne when its closure was announced
Shoppers queued outside the Woolworths branch in Sittingbourne when its closure was announced

The worst recession since the 1920s hit almost everyone. It consigned well-known names like Woolworth, Zavvi, Thresher, Wine Rack, Borders and MFI to the history books.

The banking system came close to collapse - once illustrious names like Lehman Brothers bit the dust - and was propped up by massive taxpayer bailouts. Consumer spending was fragile as mounting fears of unemployment dented confidence.

Joblessness went up by more than 10,000 in the year across Kent and Medway - but this was less than feared. Even public sector workers began to be concerned about their job security. Icelandic banks crashed, leaving authorities such as Kent County Council ruing decisions to chase higher interest rates instead of safer investments.

The Bank of England set another record by cutting base rate to a 316-year low of 0.5 per cent. That fed through to lucky homeowners with tracker mortgages but those on standard variable rates saw little benefit.

Savers and pensioners watched in horror as returns plummeted. The stock market performed badly at first, although rallied in the second half of the year.

Savings rates improved towards the end of the year, especially from bailed-out banks. Building societies cried foul but the government paid little attention. It even insisted on the good guys paying into a compensation scheme to bail out the bad guys. Where was the justice?

We heard about quantitative easing for the first time, with the Bank of England injecting huge sums - effectively by printing money - into the economy.

Kent and Medway were surprisingly buoyant, perhaps due to the county's unique location between London and mainland Europe.

High-speed domestic trains also fuelled optimism. They are predicted to lift house values by £1.6bn and stimulate inward investment.

Kent experts are reasonably bullish, although turnaround expert Steve Tancock, partner with Reeves & Neylan in Chatham, fears there could be double-dip recession.

He said Kent had weathered the situation so far but many firms were "hanging on by their fingernails."

He feels Kent has advantages, such as the new trains, that could help the county buck national trends. "That's our biggest ray of sunshine," he says.

Mike Lazenby, chief executive of Kent Reliance Building Society, expects interest rates perhaps to double to one per cent by June. He sees house prices rising by 10 to 15 per cent.

He forecasts that the county will see more impact from the 2012 Olympics and says Kent is in an ideal position to take advantage of the upturn.

But he believes the general election will cause "confusion," with the prospect of a hung Parliament a possibility.

He expects fewer home repossessions and business failures. Controversially, his big wish is for an airport off Kent, as proposed by the Mayor of London. "If only we could have an airport in the Thames, we would have everything. It would bring huge benefits to the local economy."

Jo James, chief executive of Invicta Chamber of Commerce believes the most crucial issue facing small and medium enterprises in 2010 is securing adequate funding.

She says: "Whatever the banks might say I still hear many complaints about the lack of business credit available.

"Whether it is a matter for regulation and legislation, or simply getting the banks to honour their commitment to the taxpayer, it is vitally important for the overall economy that companies should have the facility to maintain a healthy cash-flow."

How the new government deals with serious economic problems will affect us all, she says.

"Severe austerity measures" will mean cutbacks and increased taxes.

"We can but hope that a new government grasps the nettle and has the gumption to take the right measures. If they get it wrong, 2010 could be the beginning of yet another uncomfortable period."

But she is optimistic: "The business community has been steadfast in resisting the worst effects of the recession. Let's put our hope in strong government."

Here's wishing all readers a healthy and successful 2010.

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