Inflation goes down - as well as up!

Volatile" inflation figures spelled out contradictory messages today, with one index showing price hikes falling to zero and the other rising unexpectedly to 3.2 per cent.

Consumer Prices Index (CPI) annual inflation – the Government’s target measure – was 3.2 per cent in February, up from three per cent in January.

This was higher than many experts had anticipated, pushed up by higher prices for food and non-alcoholic drinks.

But thanks to lower housing costs, Retail Prices Index (RPI) inflation slowed to 0.0 per cent in February, down from 0.1 per cent in January and the lowest figure for 49 years.

Mortgage interest payments - excluded from the CPI - have dropped for most borrowers as base rate tumbled to 0.5 per cent.

The CPI increase triggered another letter from the Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King to Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling because it again exceeded the Government’s two per cent target.

Mr King wrote that February’s inflation was "somewhat higher than expected."

"Over the past two years, inflation has been noticeably more volatile than in the previous decade. My previous letters in June, September and December explained that most of the rise in inflation in 2008 was associated with developments in commodity prices, particularly those of food and energy.

"The effects on UK retail prices of increases in these world prices were magnified by the sharp depreciation in the sterling exchange rate."

But he expects the sharp decline in CPI inflation since its peak in September "to resume in the coming months."

The National Statistics Office said the largest single factor in the CPI increase was the price of vegetables, which rose by more than a year ago. The rising cost of fruit, mineral waters, soft drinks and juices, bread and cereals, and meat, were also reflected in the latest figures. They were partly offset by lower prices of coffee, tea and cocoa.

The cost of having fun - recreation and culture - went up, with higher prices for games, toys, hobbies, computer games and preschool activity toys.

Transport costs also rose, with petrol going up by an average of 3.2p a litre between January and February. Diesel went up by 2.1p a litre.

The cost of clothing and shoes also rose, along with furniture, household equipment, major appliances and non-durable household goods.

Inflation is the percentage change in the index compared with the same month one year previously.

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