The recession that dare not speak its name

ANALYSIS: Trevor Sturgess
ANALYSIS: Trevor Sturgess

ARE we in a recession? Most experts say no. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown says everything is rosy. Well, surprise, surprise!

But there is little doubt that some, if not all sectors, are in a recession. The official definition is a decline in GDP for two or more consecutive quarters.

Several industries have been particularly badly hit. The media industry - newspapers, radio, television, magazines - is struggling to attract the same levels of advertising revenue.

Consumers are deserting the high street and retailers are feeling the pinch. It has been the consumer who has kept the economy bubbling for so long.

Manufacturing, as ever, is under the hammer from tough price competition from overseas and the rising cost of raw materials.

Yet some sectors do well. The Internet boom, expected a few years ago when everyone was buying up fledgling dotcom businesses, has finally arrived.

Many people were stung when the bubble burst. It is clear they got their timing wrong. Now, a combination of factors have turned the tide in favour of dotcom businesses.

The rapid spread of broadband has made buying over the Internet much easier. Familiarity is also encouraging more people to buy online.

Internet supermarket shopping fostered by Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Ocado, the Waitrose delivery service, is easing many into the dotcom world.

People now have a wider choice online and can order in more perceived safety from their own home. This is bad news for many retailers, especially those in niches such as books, CD and travel.

Other factors include rising taxes, high fuel prices, intensifying uncertainty over job security and pensions, and less confidence in the housing market. More people are preferring to pay off credit card debts than take on a new mortgage.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee may be tempted to cut interest rates by another quarter per cent.

That will certainly help those sectors in recession. But the danger is that it will fuel another surge of house price rises. Demand for more homes as single households increase will never go away.

So overall growth this year will be less than Mr Brown forecast. For some sectors, there will be none. Other will suffer a decline.

Recession is an ugly word. But it is with us, even though no one dares to speak its name.

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