AS DEBATE over the future for the housing market hots up and views become more extreme, the National Association of Estate Agents, one of the first commentators to identify a slowing of the market, is sounding a reassuring note following completion of its latest monthly housing market survey.

The NAEA believes that, despite the now widely divergent views of various pundits, the dynamics of the market have not changed and although the traditional pre-Christmas dip in activity levels has happened right on cue, the market will recover well in the early part of the year.

The fact that demand remains high and stock levels remain low are cited as evidence to support this view.

The NAEA refutes recent forecasts of big price falls based on longterm forecasting models, pointing out that none of these models have accurately predicted market conditions during 2002.

Hugh Dunsmore-Hardy, NAEA chief executive, said: "Market conditions this year have taken all commentators by surprise and it is highly unlikely that they will be able to predict the markets over a three year period with any level of accuracy. Recent medium-term forecasts suggesting substantial price falls across the board are irresponsible.

"We can predict lower house price inflation and, in some areas, measured falls due to regional influences, but it cannot be constructive to cause widespread concern amongst potential buyers. Attention-grabbing national statistics often serve to mislead potential sellers by raising their expectations beyond what is obtainable in the local marketplace, which is subject to specific local and regional conditions."

The NAEA's latest survey findings bear out the trends it first identified in the late summer, when it first began to predict a gentle slowing of the market. The November survey showed house prices up by 18 per cent on 12 months ago, according to the model used by the NAEA for its calculations. It revealed that the proportion of sales to first time buyers stands at just under 25 per cent for the second month.